Mon, Mar 17, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 08 | 313 | 328 |
| TBL | 110 | 213 | 17 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:56TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:54TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 19:51TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 5:44VANAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Alexander Edler · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 8:47TBLTom PyattGWGAssists: JT Brown, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 11:44VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Nicklas Jensen, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 15:16VANJannik HansenSHAssists: Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:47TBLRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:48VANZack Kassian: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:27VANHenrik Sedin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:27TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:17VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:17TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:14VANZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:36TBLTom Pyatt: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 13:30VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Jensen13:55
xG 1.08–0.49 (69%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Booth – Schroeder – Kassian10:10
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Matthias9:46
xG 0.05–0.77 (6%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler16:21
xG 0.93–0.51 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev5:12
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Garrison – Stanton3:56
xG 0.04–0.14 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Palat12:06
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Purcell – Brown6:36
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson7:55
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Johnson10:19
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman11:55
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Carle – Gudas13:59
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Brewer – Kostka11:16
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).