Mon, Mar 17, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 05 | 15 | 117 |
| STL | 06 | 112 | 28 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:44STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Derek Roy, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 1:55WPGEric O'DellAssists: Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 13:09STLDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 18:49STLDavid BackesENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.58 xG1–3
Penalties (22)
- P2 2:39WPGBryan Little: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:10STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:10WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:09STLAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:26WPGEvander Kane: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:44STLVladimir Sobotka: Charging2 min
- P3 16:44WPGOlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:59WPGOlli Jokinen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59WPGOlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:59WPGJacob Trouba: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:59WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:59WPGBlake Wheeler: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:59STLRoman Polak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59STLMaxim Lapierre: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59STLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:59STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:59STLBarret Jackman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Peluso – Halischuk – Cormier5:04
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik12:31
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – O'Dell – Kane12:02
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Trouba9:17
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian10:41
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Pardy – Ellerby10:59
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ott – Roy8:53
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Jaskin12:32
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Schwartz11:37
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves8:42
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk15:26
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole12:05
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:32
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).