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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 18, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Detroit Red Wings 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.

DET winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:44Shot by Franzen, saved by Reimer
  3. P1 1:53Shot by Rielly, saved by Howard
  4. P1 2:36Shot by Gardiner, saved by Howard
  5. P1 3:10Shot by Bodie, saved by Howard
  6. P1 3:40Lupul: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Ericsson, Emmerton, Smith, Ferraro · TOR McClement, Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Rielly

  7. P1 4:13Shot by Franzen, saved by Reimer5v4
  8. P1 4:35Tatar: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Legwand, Kronwall, Kindl, Tatar, Sheahan · TOR Gleason, McClement, Ranger, Bozak

  9. P1 5:14Shot by DeKeyser, saved by Reimer4v4
  10. P1 5:48Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Howard4v5
  11. P1 7:07Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  12. P1 7:50Shot by Kindl, saved by Reimer
  13. P1 8:02Shot by Quincey, saved by Reimer
  14. P1 9:50Shot by Lupul, saved by Howard
  15. P1 11:23Shot by Legwand, saved by Reimer
  16. P1 12:50Goal by Nyquist (Quincey)+21 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Quincey, Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan · TOR Gleason, Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak

  17. P1 13:23Shot by Kulemin, saved by Howard
  18. P1 13:56Shot by Kindl, saved by Reimer
  19. P1 14:13Shot by Legwand, saved by Reimer
  20. P1 16:07Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Howard
  21. P1 16:30Shot by Raymond, saved by Howard
  22. P1 16:48Raymond: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kindl, Nyquist, Lashoff, Tatar, Sheahan · TOR Gleason, Ranger, Clarkson, Raymond, Holland

  23. P1 16:55Shot by Legwand, saved by Reimer5v4
  24. P1 19:06Shot by Miller, saved by Reimer
  25. P1 19:34Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 0:41Shot by Nyquist, saved by Reimer
  29. P2 0:41Shot by Nyquist, saved by Reimer
  30. P2 1:02Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Reimer
  31. P2 1:56Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  32. P2 2:14Shot by Ferraro, saved by Reimer
  33. P2 3:05Gleason: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Kindl, Emmerton, Smith, Ferraro · TOR Gleason, McClement, Ranger, Bodie, Raymond

  34. P2 3:21Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Reimer5v4
  35. P2 6:02Shot by Kadri, saved by Howard
  36. P2 6:42Shot by Clarkson, saved by Howard
  37. P2 6:55Shot by Lupul, saved by Howard
  38. P2 7:21Shot by Quincey, saved by Reimer
  39. P2 7:55Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  40. P2 8:16van Riemsdyk: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Ericsson, Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan · TOR Gleason, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly

  41. P2 9:06Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Reimer5v4
  42. P2 9:19Shot by Nyquist, saved by Reimer5v4
  43. P2 9:38Shot by Nyquist, saved by Reimer5v4
  44. P2 10:19Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  45. P2 10:49Shot by Kindl, saved by Reimer
  46. P2 11:08Shot by Kulemin, saved by Howard
  47. P2 11:17Shot by Kulemin, saved by Howard
  48. P2 13:13Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  49. P2 13:53Shot by Clarkson, saved by Howard
  50. P2 14:08Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Reimer
  51. P2 14:36Glendening: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Alfredsson, Miller, Kindl, Lashoff, Glendening · TOR Phaneuf, Bodie, Raymond, Franson, Gardiner

  52. P2 15:18Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard4v5
  53. P2 16:11Shot by Emmerton, saved by Reimer4v5
  54. P2 19:13Shot by Lupul, saved by Howard
  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 0:18Shot by Franzen, saved by Reimer
  58. P3 2:06Goal by Nyquist, unassisted+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Quincey, Smith, Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan · TOR Ranger, Lupul, Clarkson, Kadri, Rielly

  59. P3 3:52Shot by Glendening, saved by Reimer
  60. P3 4:43Shot by Rielly, saved by Howard
  61. P3 5:58Shot by Miller, saved by Reimer
  62. P3 6:58Quincey: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Alfredsson, Legwand, Quincey, Franzen, DeKeyser · TOR Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  63. P3 8:24Goal by Gardiner (Rielly)4v5+13 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Miller, Glendening, DeKeyser · TOR Lupul, Raymond, Gardiner, Kadri, Rielly

  64. P3 9:58Franzen: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Alfredsson, Legwand, Quincey, Franzen, DeKeyser · TOR Gleason, Lupul, Phaneuf, Clarkson, Kadri

  65. P3 10:51Shot by Lupul, saved by Howard4v5
  66. P3 11:23Shot by Franson, saved by Howard4v5
  67. P3 14:24Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Howard
  68. P3 14:41Shot by Kadri, saved by Howard
  69. P3 15:33Shot by Lupul, saved by Howard
  70. P3 15:56Shot by Raymond, saved by Howard
  71. P3 15:59Shot by Gardiner, saved by Howard
  72. P3 16:08Shot by Franzen, saved by Reimer
  73. P3 16:37Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  74. P3 17:13Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  75. P3 17:27Goal by Alfredsson (Legwand, Kronwall)+8 pts WP

    On ice: DET Alfredsson, Legwand, Kronwall, Franzen, DeKeyser · TOR Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak

  76. P3 18:47Goal by van Riemsdyk (Phaneuf, Lupul)5v6+4 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kindl, Nyquist, Lashoff, Tatar, Sheahan · TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak

  77. P3 19:56Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Howard5v6
  78. P3 0:00Period end
  79. P3 0:00Final