Tue, Mar 18, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 1, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 114 | 06 | 129 |
| EDM | 112 | 29 | 29 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25EDMSam GagnerAssists: Martin Marincin, David Perron · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 8:18EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Philip Larsen · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 14:48EDMTaylor HallAssists: Sam Gagner, Andrew Ference · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 18:39NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 8:38EDMJordan EberleAssists: Anton Lander, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 10:01EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:48NSHRyan Ellis: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:26NSHMatt Cullen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:46EDMMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:07EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:39NSHEric Nystrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:29EDMBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:48EDMMark Fraser: Holding2 min
- P3 3:16EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:38NSHMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
- P3 18:11EDMLuke Gazdic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:11NSHRich Clune: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wilson won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Eaves – Bourque2:57
xG 0.28–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Spaling2:40
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Eaves – Sissons2:42
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cullen – Smith – Bourque3:40
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi13:54
xG 0.69–0.35 (67%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Jones8:40
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Ellis13:46
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lander – Nugent-Hopkins9:21
xG 0.32–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gagner – Perron – Hall9:45
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Smyth – Hendricks – Gordon4:56
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:16
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin11:53
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Larsen3:48
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Fraser – Klefbom8:52
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).