Wed, Mar 19, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 38 | 114 | 18 | 530 |
| TOR | 27 | 010 | 122 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59TBLRadko GudasAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 3:31TORPhil KesselAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 10:32TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Tim Gleason, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 13:22TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 15:39TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Tyler Johnson, Sami Salo · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 5:55TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Ryan Malone, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–2
- P3 8:20TORJake GardinerAssists: Cody Franson, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 12:56TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:36TORDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:17TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:55TBLAlex Killorn: Boarding5 min
- P1 19:55TBLAlex Killorn: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 2:22TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:32TORDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:32TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:32TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:51TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P3 11:42TORJay McClement: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Purcell – Brown3:18
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Johnson3:48
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson5:59
xG 0.26–0.20 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Palat10:22
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Kostka9:38
xG 1.00–0.36 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Salo – Hedman4:37
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas8:45
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:54
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- McClement – Bodie – Kulemin4:19
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri2:49
xG 0.02–0.01 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Kulemin – Kadri5:47
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Gunnarsson2:20
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner10:38
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:08
xG 0.02–0.01 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).