Thu, Mar 20, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 110 | 27 | 528 |
| OTT | 210 | 110 | 111 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 10:44OTTClarke MacArthurSHAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P1 12:38TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P1 13:07OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 5:43TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–2
- P2 17:32OTTAles HemskyAssists: Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 3:48TBLEric BrewerAssists: JT Brown, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 11:58TBLRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Sami Salo · Slap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 17:08OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:34OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:35TBLMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:32OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P1 13:04TBLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:33OTTCody Ceci: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:06OTTClarke MacArthur: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:35TBLRyan Callahan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:57OTTBobby Ryan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:26TBLRyan Callahan: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:41OTTClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:04OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:04TBLRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Filppula – Callahan – Palat8:50
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson4:56
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Purcell – Stamkos – Johnson9:31
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Killorn – Panik – Brown8:35
xG 0.09–0.57 (14%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Kostka7:48
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas2:34
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Brewer2:02
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Michalek9:47
xG 0.98–0.15 (86%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Condra – Hoffman – Zibanejad8:09
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith7:00
xG 0.02–0.01 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris8:58
xG 0.18–0.26 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:51
xG 1.27–0.22 (85%)attempts 23–6goals 0–2
- Phillips – Ceci7:41
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Gryba – Cowen10:06
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).