Thu, Mar 20, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 19 | 15 | 218 |
| SJS | 16 | 011 | 211 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 17:40ANAMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 1:43ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 8:11SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 16:01SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Deflected, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:49ANALuca Sbisa: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:35SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:30SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:20ANABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:18ANAMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perreault won the faceoff against Sheppard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Etem – Rakell7:27
xG 0.34–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano11:11
xG 0.16–0.39 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Perreault – Maroon – Silfverberg14:00
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Perry12:31
xG 0.47–1.12 (30%)attempts 11–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Lindholm18:36
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Robidas – Beauchemin3:17
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa12:55
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Brown – Desjardins6:20
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Havlat – Sheppard – Wingels12:10
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto12:56
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Irwin15:16
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers3:29
xG 0.37–0.19 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Hannan – Boyle14:27
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).