Tue, Mar 25, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 211 | 18 | 010 | 329 |
| PIT | 210 | 07 | 08 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06PHXDavid MossAssists: Martin Hanzal, Brandon McMillan · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:51PITJussi JokinenPPAssists: James Neal, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:47PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Shane Doan, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–1
- P1 19:55PITTaylor PyattAssists: Rob Scuderi, Simon Despres · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 13:18PHXMikkel BoedkerGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:28PHXChris Summers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:07PITMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:18PITJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:42PITSidney Crosby: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:57PITRobert Bortuzzo: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:14PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Erat – Moss10:13
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker13:30
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – McMillan12:55
xG 0.05–0.31 (14%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson17:27
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Yandle – Stone12:55
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Summers – Gormley13:53
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Neal – Sutter11:30
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Megna4:26
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Goc – Gibbons7:49
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Neal2:51
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres10:45
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Orpik2:48
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bortuzzo11:24
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).