Tue, Mar 25, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 020 | 212 | 05 | 02 | 1 | 239 |
| FLA | 010 | 219 | 08 | 04 | 2 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:34OTTMark StoneAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 16:11OTTClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 17:32FLASean BergenheimAssists: Brian Campbell, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 17:55FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Scottie Upshall, Tomas Fleischmann · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 4. FLA Brandon Pirri scored
- 5. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:27FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:17FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:17OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:31FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43OTTMilan Michalek: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 1:36OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone15:54
xG 1.20–0.28 (81%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Kassian – Condra – Hoffman3:57
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Condra – Smith – Hoffman2:59
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:30
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci11:51
xG 1.20–0.57 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Gryba – Cowen17:14
xG 0.91–0.69 (57%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson22:07
xG 0.84–1.28 (40%)attempts 23–26goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad16:00
xG 0.99–0.85 (54%)attempts 26–15goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck12:07
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Gomez – Winchester – Howden2:46
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Hayes – Pirri2:36
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov19:01
xG 1.03–0.28 (79%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Robak – Olsen14:29
xG 0.89–0.90 (50%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Gilbert15:17
xG 0.44–0.96 (32%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).