Tue, Mar 25, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 112 | 17 | 227 |
| CHI | 116 | 214 | 112 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:42CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 4:12CHIKris VersteegAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 10:56DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jordie Benn · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 14:15CHIDuncan KeithGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 14:20DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 19:26CHIMarian HossaENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:47CHIBrandon Bollig: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:06DALCody Eakin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 5:51CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:49DALTyler Seguin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:38DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:38CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:38DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kruger won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Garbutt2:30
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Jeffrey – Garbutt7:16
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Chiasson – Seguin6:28
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin2:52
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon17:36
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Daley – Goligoski18:04
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Connauton12:35
xG 0.27–0.58 (32%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Versteeg – Toews12:58
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Regin – Kruger – Bollig9:59
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Saad – Teravainen8:54
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sharp – Shaw12:23
xG 0.36–0.51 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook13:55
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 21–6goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Leddy5:54
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Leddy – Rundblad3:18
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).