Thu, Mar 27, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 06 | 113 | 128 |
| STL | 28 | 16 | 210 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43STLT.J. OshieAssists: David Backes, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:34STLT.J. OshieSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 13:10STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 7:18STLT.J. OshieAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, David Backes · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 10:45STLBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–5
- P3 11:11MINZach PariseAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:13STLRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P1 7:09MINErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:10STLRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:59STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:59STLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:59STLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:59MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:39MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:13STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:21MINMikael Granlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00STLDerek Roy: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:42MINJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:28MINKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28MINKyle Brodziak: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Moulson – Coyle3:43
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund5:04
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter2:47
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Moulson – Granlund3:46
xG 0.03–0.01 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Brodin7:34
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon10:51
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Scandella – Spurgeon2:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Steen – Backes – Oshie9:41
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Schwartz9:09
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Reaves – Paajarvi6:34
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ott – Roy8:03
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Shattenkirk13:01
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:02
xG 0.28–0.42 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Jackman – Polak12:40
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).