Fri, Mar 28, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 114 | 111 | 234 |
| PHI | 19 | 110 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35PHIVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:04TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:03PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 4:55PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 6:18TORDave BollandAssists: Mason Raymond, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.46 xG2–3
- P3 12:39PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:08TORCody Franson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:32TORNikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:01PHIZac Rinaldo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:41TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:27PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:58TORDave Bolland: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:49TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:49PHISteve Mason: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:51PHIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:50PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:41TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:41PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:41TORDion Phaneuf: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Orr – McClement – Bodie3:56
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri7:11
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Bolland – Raymond8:03
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak15:00
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson9:07
xG 0.80–0.48 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner14:57
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Rielly3:38
xG 0.00–0.07 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – McGinn6:37
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Read – Couturier – Raffl10:42
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Hall – Rinaldo8:54
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:14
xG 0.70–0.98 (42%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann3:22
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn9:04
xG 0.37–0.32 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Schenn13:13
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).