Sat, Mar 29, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 118 | 111 | 020 | 249 |
| COL | 211 | 13 | 08 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33COLPaul StastnyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 3:07SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:34COLCody McLeodSHAssists: Nick Holden, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 6:32COLJohn MitchellPPGWGAssists: Jamie McGinn, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 8:35SJSDan BoyleAssists: James Sheppard · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:43COLNate Guenin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:26COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P1 13:07SJSLogan Couture: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:02SJSTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:29SJSMatt Irwin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:30SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:31SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:31COLCody McLeod: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:49COLRyan O'Reilly: Broken stick2 min
- P3 14:21COLNick Holden: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Sheppard – Wingels9:42
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Brown – Desjardins4:50
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto9:14
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun10:35
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin8:21
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Hannan – Stuart8:45
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:19
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – O'Reilly10:30
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Talbot – Bordeleau – Malone2:18
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche8:45
xG 0.08–0.53 (13%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson13:41
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Guenin – Benoit11:29
xG 0.06–0.28 (19%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie10:27
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).