Sat, Mar 29, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 28 | 16 | 27 | 521 |
| VAN | 17 | 015 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36ANALuca SbisaAssists: Sami Vatanen, Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:45ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 11:12VANBrad RichardsonAssists: Ryan Stanton, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 11:02ANASaku KoivuAssists: Daniel Winnik, Andrew Cogliano · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 6:45ANACorey PerryAssists: Saku Koivu, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 14:03ANAMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:34VANDavid Booth: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:01VANBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:27ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:27VANZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:40ANABen Lovejoy: Holding2 min
- P2 6:22ANABryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P2 7:57VANShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:03ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:03VANAlexandre Burrows: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:16ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:35VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min
- P3 13:34VANShawn Matthias: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Perry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Bonino9:37
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beleskey – Rakell8:28
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Perreault – Maroon – Palmieri6:52
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:05
xG 0.03–0.58 (4%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Sbisa15:58
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Robidas – Beauchemin13:03
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Allen – Vatanen13:28
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Booth – Kassian9:06
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Sestito – Schroeder – Kassian2:16
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Hansen – Sestito – Schroeder5:04
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Matthias – Jensen9:06
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Stanton11:46
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa2:39
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Edler14:18
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).