Sun, Mar 30, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 313 | 111 | 532 |
| EDM | 03 | 013 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:30NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Benoit Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:38NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Raphael Diaz, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 9:07NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 13:26NYRRick NashSHAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 3:49NYRMats ZuccarelloSHAssists: Derek Stepan, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.18 xG5–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:30EDMLuke Gazdic: Interference2 min
- P2 2:40EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:50NYRDaniel Carcillo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:14NYRRaphael Diaz: Interference2 min
- P3 1:53NYRRaphael Diaz: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:33EDMSam Gagner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:31NYRAnton Stralman: Holding2 min
- P3 10:15EDMBoyd Gordon: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:30EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:30NYRDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48EDMDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Carcillo – Stepan7:43
xG 0.49–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Richards – Hagelin9:56
xG 0.33–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett6:38
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello8:09
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman9:56
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh10:59
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Diaz7:24
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins7:43
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Pitlick5:30
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lander – Nugent-Hopkins2:44
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Gagner – Perron – Hall4:29
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fraser – Belov7:00
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Petry – Marincin12:28
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Belov2:21
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).