Thu, Apr 3, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 110 | 011 | 134 |
| CAR | 08 | 311 | 113 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:30CAREric StaalAssists: John-Michael Liles, Patrick Dwyer · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:08CARJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: John-Michael Liles, Chris Terry · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:06CARJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Chris Terry, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 9:44DALTyler SeguinAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 7:40CARRiley NashAssists: Brett Bellemore · Snap, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:20CARBrett Bellemore: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:46DALPatrik Nemeth: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:16DALPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47CARNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:00DALAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:08DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:12DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:12DALTyler Seguin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:26DALRyan Garbutt: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:56CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Jeffrey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJeffrey – Chiasson – Eakin2:01
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Jeffrey – Chiasson2:04
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:04
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour8:29
xG 0.39–0.53 (43%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Dillon12:54
xG 0.82–0.85 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Nemeth11:00
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Daley – Goligoski17:33
xG 0.72–0.94 (43%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Staal10:39
xG 0.97–0.33 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm10:26
xG 0.77–0.46 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Boychuk6:36
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Terry – Loktionov9:39
xG 0.42–0.92 (32%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore4:55
xG 0.65–0.08 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Bellemore9:18
xG 0.51–0.18 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Komisarek – Harrison9:03
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).