Thu, Apr 3, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 16 | 27 | 421 |
| WPG | 06 | 26 | 03 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:44PITBeau BennettAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 2:52WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 9:42WPGZach RedmondAssists: Evander Kane, Matt Halischuk · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:47PITCraig AdamsAssists: Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:42PITPaul MartinPPGWGAssists: James Neal, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 16:24PITBrian GibbonsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:44WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:29PITTaylor Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:35PITRob Scuderi: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:31WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:25PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Glass – Sutter3:48
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Bennett11:57
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Adams – Pyatt – Megna2:48
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Pyatt – Glass3:50
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin11:31
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Maatta12:58
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Martin – Niskanen2:25
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ladd – Little – Frolik11:21
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Slater – Tangradi – Peluso6:27
xG 0.19–0.26 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Halischuk – O'Dell – Kane10:20
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba10:33
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pardy – Redmond9:27
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Postma – Trouba2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).