Thu, Apr 3, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 115 | 03 | 05 | 0 | 231 |
| COL | 09 | 17 | 116 | 05 | 1 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10NYRJohn MooreAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Benoit Pouliot · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 5:57COLAndre BenoitAssists: John Mitchell, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 15:30NYRDerek StepanAssists: Kevin Klein, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:08COLTyson BarrieAssists: Paul Stastny, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. COL Tyson Barrie scored
- 2. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 4. NYR Martin St. Louis stopped
- 5. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 6. NYR Brad Richards stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:33NYRDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:50COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:38NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:10COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min
- P2 15:55COLJohn Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 19:11NYRDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P2 19:40COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:29NYRDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:26COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Hagelin – Stepan7:56
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello8:18
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Richards – Carcillo5:45
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett4:48
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Diaz5:37
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Girardi – Moore5:46
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Moore – Diaz2:41
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:40
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – O'Reilly7:43
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Talbot – Bordeleau – McLeod5:44
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie8:07
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barrie2:43
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson12:41
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).