Sat, Apr 5, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 212 | 112 | 010 | 334 |
| NYR | 016 | 214 | 013 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:45OTTMark StoneAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 17:23OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 5:25NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Benoit Pouliot, John Moore · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 8:27OTTJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 11:55NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Marc Staal, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:12OTTEric Gryba: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:17OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:13OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13NYRDerick Brassard: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:13NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Michalek14:08
xG 0.84–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone11:44
xG 0.55–0.73 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Neil – Smith – Zibanejad10:01
xG 0.39–0.83 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Condra – Hoffman – Pageau9:03
xG 0.18–0.89 (17%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson2:01
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci12:04
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Methot – Karlsson21:18
xG 1.13–1.74 (39%)attempts 26–30goals 2–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Hagelin – Stepan12:44
xG 1.19–0.51 (70%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello10:07
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 2–2
- St. Louis – Richards – Boyle13:43
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Moore – Carcillo – Dorsett7:39
xG 0.08–0.36 (18%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Diaz3:12
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:45
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Klein – Diaz6:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).