Sun, Apr 6, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 19 | 016 | 237 |
| FLA | 06 | 29 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:39DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 8:20FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Brandon Pirri · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 19:03FLABrandon PirriAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Bobby Butler · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 15:29FLASean BergenheimGWGAssists: Colby Robak, Scott Gomez · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:33FLADmitry Kulikov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:40FLAKrys Barch: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:01FLASean Bergenheim: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:48FLAScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:47DALRyan Garbutt: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:17FLARoberto Luongo: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin9:58
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:19
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Jeffrey – Chiasson8:21
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour9:28
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Dillon14:30
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski14:48
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Gonchar – Nemeth13:23
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bergenheim – Butler7:40
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Winchester – Bjugstad – Howden5:27
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Barch – Hayes – Pirri2:58
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Winchester – Pirri – Bjugstad2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobak – Kulikov10:15
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Campbell – Olsen10:03
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Robak – Olsen2:33
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).