Tue, Apr 8, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 113 | 312 | 437 |
| BUF | 09 | 19 | 19 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:31BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Cody Hodgson, Mike Weber · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 12:28DETBrendan SmithAssists: Johan Franzen, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 3:33DETDarren HelmAssists: Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 15:46DETDavid LegwandGWGAssists: Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:49BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Cody Hodgson, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:55DETPavel DatsyukENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.51 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:34BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 3:57DETDarren Helm: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:07BUFMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:37BUFMike Weber: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:47DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P2 12:56DETJustin Abdelkader: Delaying game2 min
- P2 18:36BUFBrian Flynn: Holding2 min
- P3 1:11BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Helm – Glendening2:03
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Helm – Jurco8:07
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan8:57
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader9:45
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith2:46
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith12:12
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 17–5goals 2–1
- Kindl – Smith2:29
xG 0.02–0.03 (41%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Hodgson – Girgensons7:21
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- D'Agostini – Deslauriers – Larsson10:29
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Foligno12:38
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Ellis – Conacher – Flynn5:01
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCabe10:32
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Weber – McBain13:44
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain2:51
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).