Tue, Apr 8, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 110 | 313 | 432 |
| NYI | 017 | 015 | 114 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:45OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 0:22NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kevin Czuczman, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.32 xG1–1
- P3 12:45OTTJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 14:26OTTAles HemskyAssists: Milan Michalek, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 19:48OTTMatt KassianENAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:55NYIBrett Gallant: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:55OTTMatt Kassian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:59NYIBrett Gallant: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:59OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:52OTTClarke MacArthur: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:53OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P1 19:07NYIMatt Donovan: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:46NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:14NYIJohn Persson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:47NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P3 8:26NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:24OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:20NYIAnders Lee: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Zibanejad10:54
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone9:10
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kassian – Condra – Pageau4:46
xG 0.12–0.27 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek8:49
xG 0.40–0.86 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch2:46
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch7:33
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson12:04
xG 1.19–1.09 (52%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bailey – Lee11:11
xG 1.10–0.48 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Gallant – Cizikas – Halmo4:24
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Persson3:11
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas2:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Donovan11:08
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Czuczman11:59
xG 0.80–1.02 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
- Hickey – Mayfield10:01
xG 0.59–0.89 (40%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).