Wed, Apr 9, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 19 | 112 | 03 | 0 | 337 |
| PIT | 04 | 26 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:41DETTomas JurcoAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Darren Helm · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 9:03PITJames NealPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Paul Martin · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:22DETJakub KindlAssists: Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:42PITJames NealPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Paul Martin · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:17PITJussi JokinenAssists: Kris Letang, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 18:45DETRiley SheahanAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT James Neal stopped
- 2. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 5. PIT Jussi Jokinen scored
- 6. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:11PITBrian Gibbons: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:45PITJussi Jokinen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:39DETKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
- P2 8:39DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:26DETDavid Legwand: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:46DETBrian Lashoff: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Helm – Jurco8:34
xG 0.91–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan11:01
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Legwand – Miller – Glendening10:47
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Datsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader13:38
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:22
xG 1.05–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff9:57
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–0goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith16:28
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Neal2:27
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Bennett10:54
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Adams – Pyatt – Payerl5:06
xG 0.03–0.18 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Glass – Sutter8:09
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Letang15:41
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Orpik – Martin17:06
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Maatta13:08
xG 0.21–0.65 (24%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).