Thu, Apr 10, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 11 | 011 | 124 |
| NYR | 09 | 118 | 13 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:06BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Mike Weber, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 19:29NYRBenoit PouliotAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 18:18NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:55BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:29BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:50BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:51BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:13NYRDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:10NYRBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:57BUFMatt D'Agostini: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:57NYRBrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – D'Agostini – Ennis11:26
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Ellis – Leino – Foligno6:33
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Girgensons10:35
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Conacher – Flynn4:22
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Weber14:07
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Ristolainen16:18
xG 0.34–0.59 (37%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- McBain – McCabe12:24
xG 0.25–0.60 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Hagelin – Fast10:01
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Nash – Stepan9:23
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett8:27
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello10:44
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Diaz10:33
xG 0.39–0.11 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Klein – Girardi3:59
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Girardi – Moore7:12
xG 0.20–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).