Thu, Apr 10, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 17 | 115 | 229 |
| FLA | 19 | 117 | 211 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06FLABrandon PirriAssists: Quinton Howden, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:13TORTyler BozakAssists: Jake Gardiner, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 19:57FLABrad BoyesAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 3:23FLANick BjugstadGWGAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Brad Boyes · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 6:02FLANick BjugstadSHAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Colby Robak · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 13:57TORPaul RangerAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:42TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:36TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:36TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:36TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:36FLAEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:22FLANick Bjugstad: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:36TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:22FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:49TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:49FLAJesse Winchester: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Clarkson – Kulemin – Kadri5:22
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Kulemin2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Smith5:55
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Raymond – Kadri5:42
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gunnarsson – Gardiner5:50
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ranger – Phaneuf2:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner4:03
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad11:12
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck11:31
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Winchester – Shore – Huberdeau7:46
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Howden9:39
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson13:24
xG 1.11–0.30 (79%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Robak – Olsen9:33
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov17:23
xG 0.41–0.92 (31%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).