Fri, Apr 11, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 28 | 07 | 04 | 219 |
| DET | 011 | 09 | 19 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 18:24CARJiri TlustyGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P3 3:43DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Tomas Jurco, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:34DETGustav Nyquist: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 6:21CARRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:05DETKyle Quincey: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:05CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:58CARJay Harrison: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:24DETGustav Nyquist: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm10:09
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal11:03
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Bowman – Loktionov8:51
xG 0.04–0.42 (9%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Boychuk13:11
xG 0.33–0.84 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Bellemore16:05
xG 0.46–0.63 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Liles – Faulk16:35
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Harrison9:37
xG 0.25–0.85 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:42
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Legwand – Miller – Glendening7:05
xG 0.36–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader9:08
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening4:35
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff11:36
xG 0.84–0.03 (96%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith13:50
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Kindl2:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).