Sat, Apr 12, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 14 | 110 | 11 | 421 |
| PIT | 17 | 015 | 213 | 01 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00PITJussi JokinenAssists: James Neal, Brian Gibbons · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:09PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 14:38PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 14:53PITJames NealAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 18:45PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:23PITKris LetangAssists: James Neal, Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 2:10PHIMark StreitGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:43PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:27PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P2 5:33PHISteve Mason: Delaying game2 min
- P2 5:59PHIAdam Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:27PITJayson Megna: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:18PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:18PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:18PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PITTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek13:09
xG 0.78–0.28 (73%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Lecavalier – Hall – Rosehill4:46
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn2:32
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – McGinn7:57
xG 0.06–0.44 (13%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Streit12:47
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson12:50
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Coburn – MacDonald15:56
xG 0.07–0.43 (14%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Neal – Gibbons4:09
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Crosby – Neal2:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Crosby – Neal2:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Crosby – Bennett6:59
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Bortuzzo7:19
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Maatta9:35
xG 0.41–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Letang9:53
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).