Sat, Apr 12, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 013 | 016 | 010 | 02 | 041 |
| MTL | 06 | 011 | 08 | 12 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 2:04MTLBrian GiontaGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:40MTLMike Weaver: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:22NYRDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:22NYRDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:22MTLFrancis Bouillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:22NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:51NYRDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:51NYRDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:51MTLP.K. Subban: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:14MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:58MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P3 4:58NYRBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min
- P3 7:28MTLFrancis Bouillon: Kneeing2 min
- P3 10:48NYRCarl Hagelin: Cross checking2 min
- OT 2:04NYRRaphael Diaz: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello9:48
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett6:47
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Carcillo – Stepan8:22
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Hagelin – Fast8:44
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Diaz2:26
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Falk – Diaz4:06
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman11:05
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Brière – Gionta – Bourque7:58
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Blunden – White – Bournival3:58
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Weise – Gallagher6:20
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Bournival3:04
xG 0.06–0.43 (13%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin14:15
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Weaver9:23
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban2:32
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).