Sun, Apr 13, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 7, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 410 | 212 | 733 |
| MIN | 212 | 18 | 09 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13MINErik HaulaAssists: Jason Pominville, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 12:13MINJason PominvilleAssists: Matt Moulson, Erik Haula · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 14:57NSHRich CluneAssists: Paul Gaustad · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 2:10MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 4:57NSHRyan EllisAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 6:22NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 6:57NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P2 14:53NSHCraig SmithAssists: Roman Josi, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 11:50NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Craig Smith, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.20 xG6–3
- P3 15:41NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Nick Spaling, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.36 xG7–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:55MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P2 0:53NSHMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:12MINMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:42NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:42NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:42MINClayton Stoner: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:52NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:52NSHRich Clune: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:52NSHRich Clune: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:22MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P3 5:22MINJustin Fontaine: Holding2 min
- P3 15:06MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00MINCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Smith – Bourque3:38
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Spaling – Smith – Jarnkrok5:04
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 3–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Clune2:18
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Spaling – Smith2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm13:37
xG 0.91–0.46 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Bartley – Jones11:32
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi17:35
xG 0.42–1.18 (26%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle12:30
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Pominville – Moulson – Haula9:13
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
- Cooke – Niederreiter – Fontaine10:39
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon14:42
xG 1.12–0.38 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Stoner – Prosser7:17
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin12:06
xG 0.26–0.60 (31%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).