Sun, Apr 13, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 13 | 08 | 122 |
| VAN | 210 | 311 | 02 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14VANDaniel SedinAssists: David Booth, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:57VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P2 9:12VANFrank CorradoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 13:49VANRyan KeslerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 15:22CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Joe Colborne, Chris Breen · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 18:55VANYannick WeberPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Michael Zalewski · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:50VANYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 12:38CGYKevin Westgarth: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30CGYKevin Westgarth: Concealing puck2 min
- P2 17:16CGYPaul Byron: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 17:16CGYPaul Byron: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:12VANTom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:16VANYannick Weber: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Bouma
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColborne – Gaudreau – Monahan3:25
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Bouma7:30
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Arnold – Gaudreau4:13
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Glencross2:04
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Billins4:54
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cundari – Breen4:43
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Giordano – Russell3:37
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows6:55
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Sestito – Dalpe – Kassian3:14
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Matthias3:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Burrows – Booth2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanton – Corrado13:04
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Weber – Garrison13:38
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler17:41
xG 0.25–0.69 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).