Wed, Oct 8, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 07 | 16 | 120 |
| BOS | 114 | 06 | 113 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39BOSReilly SmithPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 4:19PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Matt Read · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 18:09BOSChris KellyGWGAssists: Adam McQuaid, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:44PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:02BOSDennis Seidenberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:52PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:52BOSBobby Robins: Charging2 min
- P2 10:52PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:52BOSBobby Robins: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:39BOSLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min
- P3 13:59PHIZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier11:16
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Raffl11:11
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Akeson – Bellemare7:25
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn12:45
xG 0.05–0.90 (5%)attempts 4–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Coburn – MacDonald14:00
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Streit – Grossmann13:15
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto12:27
xG 0.06–0.72 (8%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg12:23
xG 0.81–0.16 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith12:10
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Fraser – Spooner8:08
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Paille – Robins – Cunningham6:01
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug12:30
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid4:46
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid11:18
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).