Wed, Oct 8, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 4, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 115 | 312 | 03 | 430 |
| LAK | 011 | 013 | 010 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43SJSTommy WingelsGWGAssists: Tye McGinn, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 3:20SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 15:50SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Brent Burns, Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 16:04SJSMatt NietoAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:18SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
- P1 11:21LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:21SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:03LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:47LAKDrew Doughty: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:46LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53LAKMike Richards: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:36SJSLogan Couture: Holding2 min
- P3 10:15SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:53SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:53SJSMike Brown: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:49
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Wingels – McGinn – Tierney8:41
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto8:36
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Burish – Brown – Desjardins8:26
xG 0.03–0.24 (11%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:24
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Mueller13:06
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Hannan – Demers14:38
xG 0.29–0.80 (27%)attempts 10–26goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – Clifford7:05
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar8:02
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson8:23
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Williams – Richards – King9:35
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez9:35
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Regehr – Voynov12:14
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Martinez – Doughty2:04
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).