Thu, Oct 9, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 2, Washington Capitals 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 02 | 012 | 19 | 01 | 3 | 224 |
| WSH | 115 | 07 | 06 | 02 | 2 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 10:31MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tom Gilbert · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 5. WSH Eric Fehr scored
- 6. MTL PA Parenteau stopped
- 7. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 8. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 9. WSH Andre Burakovsky stopped
- 10. MTL Brendan Gallagher scored
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:41MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:44MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:29MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:07WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:49WSHLiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:49MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:49WSHLiam O'Brien: Charging2 min
- P2 3:10MTLPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:20WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:26MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:26MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:26WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding2 min
- P3 3:57MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:57WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:34WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMalhotra – Moen – Prust6:53
xG 0.71–0.03 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Bourque – Eller5:04
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher5:17
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty4:29
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Gilbert12:55
xG 0.99–0.15 (86%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu2:23
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Weaver – Beaulieu8:30
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Ovechkin – Backstrom13:50
xG 0.84–0.12 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Johansson – Burakovsky8:13
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich10:12
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Kuznetsov – O'Brien2:40
xG 0.06–0.69 (8%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner14:59
xG 0.73–0.20 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson10:16
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:04
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).