Thu, Oct 9, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 27 | 04 | 315 | 526 |
| EDM | 114 | 111 | 015 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16CGYMason RaymondAssists: Mark Giordano, Joe Colborne · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 4:16CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Paul Byron · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 12:59EDMTeddy PurcellPPAssists: David Perron, Nail Yakupov · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:25EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 4:23CGYMason RaymondGWGAssists: Lance Bouma, Joe Colborne · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 14:42CGYMason RaymondAssists: Joe Colborne, Jiri Hudler · Deflected, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 19:20CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:42CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:44EDMJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:14CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:24EDMBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Byron – Monahan9:31
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Bouma3:02
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Jones – Glencross – Backlund13:00
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Gaudreau2:31
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Brodie3:16
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Smid – Diaz11:25
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – Russell17:29
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gordon – Joensuu8:12
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:31
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 18–5goals 0–2
- Pouliot – Yakupov – Draisaitl11:46
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Purcell – Perron – Arcobello12:27
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry13:25
xG 0.97–0.18 (85%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Schultz – Hunt16:45
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Fayne15:01
xG 0.56–0.80 (41%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).