Thu, Oct 9, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 6, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 416 | 18 | 13 | 627 |
| ARI | 18 | 09 | 111 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:38ARIMikkel BoedkerAssists: Shane Doan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 8:33WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Toby Enstrom, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 8:48WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Zach Bogosian, Toby Enstrom · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P1 14:11WPGMark StuartAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 12:31WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 5:07WPGBryan LittleSHAssists: Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–1
- P3 8:25ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.34 xG6–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:24ARIMichael Stone: Delaying game2 min
- P1 2:58ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:58WPGAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:29WPGAdam Pardy: Holding2 min
- P1 11:29ARIB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:57ARIMartin Erat: Delaying game2 min
- P1 14:37ARIAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
- P1 14:37WPGJim Slater: Embellishment2 min
- P1 16:04ARIShane Doan: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:04WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:00ARISam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:13ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:57WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P2 10:00WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22ARIZbynek Michalek: Interference2 min
- P3 3:26WPGAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Thorburn – Perreault – Lowry2:25
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Galiardi5:37
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik9:08
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Pardy – Postma7:04
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian7:24
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Trouba2:30
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Hanzal – Klinkhammer3:02
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Klinkhammer – Gagner4:01
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan6:06
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moss – Korpikoski – Gagner4:35
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone14:36
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:06
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 13–4goals 1–3
- Michalek – Yandle2:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).