Sat, Oct 11, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 313 | 117 | 111 | 541 |
| TOR | 07 | 19 | 19 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Snap, 0.43 xG1–0
- P1 7:44PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
- P1 17:46PITChris KunitzPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 4:18TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 13:46PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–1
- P3 8:26PITBrandon SutterAssists: Paul Martin, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–1
- P3 10:51TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Stuart Percy · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:30TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:27PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:39TORPeter Holland: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:02TORDaniel Winnik: Holding2 min
- P1 19:16PITSteve Downie: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:48PITBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:48TORDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:30PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26PITNick Spaling: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:03TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:55TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 8:54PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:27TORJames van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:27PITSimon Despres: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Malkin – Sutter9:14
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Goc – Comeau – Downie6:24
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist8:28
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Spaling – Sill5:21
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Ehrhoff16:26
xG 1.09–0.37 (75%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta13:05
xG 0.83–0.51 (62%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres12:52
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak5:46
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Kadri4:18
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Komarov4:33
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Santorelli – Komarov6:12
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Gardiner2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Percy14:34
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Robidas – Phaneuf9:37
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).