Tue, Oct 14, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 214 | 09 | 212 | 435 |
| CBJ | 08 | 216 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Colton Sceviour · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 6:20DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 6:17CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Cam Atkinson, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 14:22CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–2
- P3 12:16DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:59DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Cody Eakin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:50DALErik Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:33DALKari Lehtonen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:03DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:15DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55CBJScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
- P2 19:47DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:47CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Sceviour – Seguin12:54
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 3–0
- Cole – Sceviour – Seguin2:13
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:20
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Fiddler7:08
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon17:38
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Daley – Goligoski17:04
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Connauton – Nemeth9:23
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Johansen13:13
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Skille – Boll – Chaput3:03
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Anisimov – Wennberg8:40
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–3
- Boll – Chaput – Dano3:30
xG 0.01–0.08 (11%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Erixon15:13
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout16:26
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard16:24
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 12–20goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).