Tue, Oct 14, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 19 | 17 | 225 |
| TBL | 011 | 09 | 17 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:38NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Andy Greene, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P3 8:59TBLAlex KillornAssists: Tyler Johnson, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 11:19NJDMichael CammalleriPPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:18NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:59TBLJason Garrison: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:47NJDDamon Severson: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:16NJDMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:33TBLBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P2 10:43TBLVictor Hedman: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:56TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:29NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Cammalleri – Zajac13:00
xG 0.93–0.16 (85%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Havlat8:34
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique9:39
xG 0.05–0.25 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta5:41
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson13:31
xG 0.90–0.05 (95%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky12:46
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Gelinas – Merrill7:15
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Killorn – Johnson11:13
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly8:59
xG 0.10–0.19 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Brown8:18
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Palat11:22
xG 0.10–0.94 (10%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Garrison15:53
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Brewer – Sustr9:07
xG 0.18–0.16 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:18
xG 0.02–0.13 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).