Tue, Oct 14, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 111 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 328 |
| NSH | 17 | 16 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Derek Roy, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:01CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Mark Giordano, Brandon Bollig · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:19CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 15:10NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Derek Roy stopped
- 2. CGY Joe Colborne scored
- 3. NSH James Neal stopped
- 4. CGY Jiri Hudler stopped
- 5. NSH Olli Jokinen stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:49CGYMatt Stajan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:26CGYCurtis Glencross: Interference2 min
- P2 5:02NSHColin Wilson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:30NSHRyan Ellis: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:06NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:17CGYDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- P3 10:17NSHFilip Forsberg: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Setoguchi – Monahan10:28
xG 0.67–0.05 (94%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig5:46
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Glencross – Byron – Backlund11:38
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Gaudreau9:52
xG 0.06–0.54 (10%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Russell15:05
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell3:19
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Smid9:56
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bourque – Jarnkrok7:11
xG 0.45–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wilson – Jarnkrok2:08
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Wilson9:36
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck10:06
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm15:26
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi21:09
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Jones11:45
xG 0.24–0.64 (27%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).