Wed, Oct 15, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 4, Arizona Coyotes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 212 | 06 | 29 | 427 |
| ARI | 212 | 28 | 310 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 8:22ARIMikkel BoedkerPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Smith · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 13:53ARIKyle ChipchuraAssists: Joe Vitale, Brandon McMillan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 17:50EDMMark FayneAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 5:08ARIConnor MurphyAssists: Shane Doan, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 6:15ARIRob KlinkhammerAssists: Martin Erat, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 3:39EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 9:07ARIMikkel BoedkerGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 12:59ARIMartin EratAssists: Martin Hanzal, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–6
- P3 14:30EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–6
- P3 19:33ARIMikkel BoedkerENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.67 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:56EDMNikita Nikitin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:40ARIDavid Moss: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26EDMMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P2 2:28ARIAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:29EDMNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:16EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:55EDMJeff Petry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:55ARIDavid Moss: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:42EDMWill Acton: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:42ARIJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Arcobello
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Joensuu – Acton5:52
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Gordon – Purcell – Perron10:59
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Arcobello14:18
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Yakupov – Draisaitl8:17
xG 0.41–1.20 (25%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Schultz14:32
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Ference – Petry9:57
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Schultz – Nurse3:15
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Vitale – McMillan8:24
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Vermette – Moss – Korpikoski2:50
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Hanzal – Klinkhammer9:05
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker6:30
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone16:24
xG 0.92–0.43 (68%)attempts 15–18goals 3–1
- Schlemko – Murphy8:56
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:22
xG 0.47–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).