Thu, Oct 16, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
San Jose Sharks 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 03 | 28 | 15 | 07 | 1 | 323 |
| NYI | 014 | 114 | 212 | 05 | 2 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:39SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton, Mirco Mueller · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:05NYINick LeddyAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 9:14SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:57NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 8:38NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 11:16SJSTomas HertlAssists: Jason Demers, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 3. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 6. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 7. NYI Ryan Strome stopped
- 8. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 9. NYI John Tavares scored
- 10. SJS Joe Thornton stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:43SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min
- P2 9:07NYIRyan Strome: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:38SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Desjardins – Wingels5:48
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Scott3:25
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto14:53
xG 0.31–0.62 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl15:53
xG 0.56–1.17 (32%)attempts 23–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Burns – Mueller13:45
xG 0.25–0.68 (27%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun20:16
xG 0.53–1.09 (33%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Demers – Irwin17:42
xG 0.38–1.20 (24%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Conacher16:30
xG 1.33–0.36 (79%)attempts 24–15goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:55
xG 0.38–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Bailey2:16
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Bailey5:50
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy18:16
xG 1.65–0.36 (82%)attempts 28–11goals 2–1
- Hickey – Hamonic17:20
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Strait – de Haan16:44
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).