Fri, Oct 17, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 011 | 214 | 231 |
| CBJ | 28 | 19 | 09 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59CBJJack SkilleAssists: Mark Letestu, Matt Calvert · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 5:21CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 7:55CBJMatt CalvertGWGAssists: Mark Letestu, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–3
- P3 2:21CGYMason RaymondAssists: Curtis Glencross, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 11:43CGYJosh JoorisAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:41CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:05CGYBrian McGrattan: Interference2 min
- P1 9:04CBJCorey Tropp: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:04CGYLadislav Smid: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:44CBJJack Skille: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:48CBJArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:04CBJMichael Chaput: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 0:17CBJMatt Calvert: Charging2 min
- P3 8:12CGYMatt Stajan: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:46CGYMason Raymond: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Glencross – Jooris2:44
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Glencross – Byron – Backlund5:37
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Raymond – Byron – Backlund4:50
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Monahan – Jooris6:07
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Diaz3:22
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Wideman – Smid2:05
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smid – Diaz7:39
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Letestu – Calvert7:14
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Anisimov – Wennberg7:18
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Johansen7:41
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Boll – Tropp – Chaput6:09
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Erixon8:21
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard16:09
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout13:05
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).