Fri, Oct 17, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 213 | 115 | 435 |
| TOR | 05 | 012 | 17 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00DETJohan FranzenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 5:42DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:16DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 0:21TORMike SantorelliAssists: Leo Komarov, David Clarkson · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 5:51DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:03TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:41TORRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:23TORDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:51DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:52TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:52DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:14TORPeter Holland: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:21TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Santorelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist4:55
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco6:31
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening10:10
xG 0.52–0.45 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist3:31
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser8:10
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Quincey – Kindl4:37
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith5:29
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHolland – Panik – Kozun2:08
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Santorelli – Komarov7:37
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak8:12
xG 0.35–0.36 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lupul – Holland – Panik4:16
xG 0.02–0.06 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly11:28
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Franson9:28
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Percy2:47
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).