Sat, Oct 18, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 212 | 212 | 012 | 436 |
| BUF | 016 | 05 | 011 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56BOSDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 13:31BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Brad Marchand, Dougie Hamilton · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 11:40BOSTorey KrugAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 14:48BOSCarl SoderbergAssists: Chris Kelly, Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:03BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:55BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:55BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:06BOSDavid Krejci: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:51BUFCody McCormick: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:25BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 15:28BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:46BUFCody Hodgson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:11BOSDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:02BOSLoui Eriksson: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:22BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:35BOSGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:06
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith6:48
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Gagne – Krejci – Lucic9:12
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Fraser5:38
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Krug3:15
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton7:31
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – Krug2:02
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Mitchell – Girgensons8:18
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Ennis7:14
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–3
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno8:57
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Flynn8:13
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Weber11:45
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Benoit – Ristolainen10:56
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Gorges – Myers11:45
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).