Sat, Oct 18, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Dallas Stars 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 214 | 010 | 311 | 12 | 637 |
| DAL | 110 | 38 | 15 | 00 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:32DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:16PHISean CouturierAssists: R.J. Umberger, Andrew MacDonald · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:09PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Luke Schenn, Steve Mason · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 2:46DALErik ColeAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Patrick Eaves · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 18:33DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 19:29DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 8:32PHIAndrew MacDonaldPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Matt Read · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 14:14PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Nick Schultz, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.23 xG4–4
- P3 14:54DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jordie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.34 xG4–5
- P3 16:07PHIMichael RafflAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–5
- OT 2:49PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.09 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:42DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:51PHIBlair Jones: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 16:05DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 18:17PHIJakub Voracek: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 3:34PHIMatt Read: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:39DALJordie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56DALJamie Benn: Closing hand on puck2 min
- OT 2:09DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Bellemare10:25
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:35
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- VandeVelde – Jones – Rinaldo4:33
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Umberger – Read – Couturier10:08
xG 0.18–1.37 (11%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz16:08
xG 1.13–0.30 (79%)attempts 27–9goals 2–1
- Schenn – Del Zotto11:13
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Del Zotto2:15
xG 0.01–0.45 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin12:58
xG 1.39–0.68 (67%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Hemsky – Fiddler – McKenzie9:50
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Horcoff – Eaves7:33
xG 0.15–0.61 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt12:34
xG 0.12–0.66 (15%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Connauton2:55
xG 1.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Connauton2:00
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Connauton – Dillon8:53
xG 0.35–0.32 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).