Sun, Oct 19, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 012 | 117 | 141 |
| LAK | 17 | 05 | 14 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:54LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Mike Richards, Slava Voynov · Slap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P3 2:58LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 6:47MINMatt CookeAssists: Ryan Carter, Justin Fontaine · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:15MINCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:19LAKTyler Toffoli: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:55LAKMatt Greene: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:31MINChristian Folin: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:31LAKMike Richards: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:31LAKMike Richards: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:31LAKMike Richards: Instigator2 min
- P2 14:09MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:43LAKMike Richards: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:49LAKRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund12:48
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter7:18
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Fontaine7:53
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Carter – Zucker3:40
xG 0.01–0.21 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin13:02
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Prosser2:29
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Folin2:25
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson7:47
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Williams – Richards – Kopitar7:00
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Kopitar – King4:47
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff3:49
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Voynov15:38
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Martinez – Doughty3:26
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb15:08
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).