Mon, Oct 20, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 19 | 19 | 224 |
| EDM | 05 | 211 | 17 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:21TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jason Garrison · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:36EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Nail Yakupov, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:57EDMTaylor HallUnassisted · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 13:55TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 16:35EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:41EDMJesse Joensuu: Holding2 min
- P1 15:33EDMTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:51TBLBrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P2 14:57TBLMatt Carle: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:20EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:54TBLVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Stamkos – Palat7:27
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly6:38
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Brown8:06
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Stamkos – Palat3:19
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr14:38
xG 0.43–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman14:27
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Brewer – Barberio12:43
xG 0.41–0.47 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Perron – Draisaitl10:19
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu9:34
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Arcobello – Yakupov7:21
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:19
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry17:27
xG 0.84–0.39 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Schultz14:14
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Fayne – Marincin13:47
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).