Tue, Oct 21, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 09 | 29 | 11 | 425 |
| NJD | 111 | 19 | 110 | 01 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.48 xG1–0
- P1 13:40NJDJaromir JagrPPAssists: Damien Brunner, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P2 14:55NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 0:36NJDJon MerrillPPAssists: Damien Brunner, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 9:06NYRChris MuellerPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 14:32NYRRick NashAssists: Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:42NYRKevin KleinGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Chris Mueller · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:26NYRKevin Hayes: Holding2 min
- P1 6:30NJDJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:43NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:38NJDMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
- P2 13:28NYRRyan Malone: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:12NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:01NYRRick Nash: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:44NJDMichael Cammalleri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Brassard – Zuccarello14:06
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Kreider – Hayes8:14
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Nash – Mueller – Kreider3:05
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Malone – Glass – Mueller4:17
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal6:40
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Klein – Moore2:41
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:25
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Clowe – Henrique11:43
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Gionta – Brunner4:34
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac10:33
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Elias – Havlat – Cammalleri10:00
xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Salvador – Zidlicky16:16
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson16:12
xG 0.94–0.95 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Merrill – Larsson11:43
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).