Tue, Oct 21, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 413 | 05 | 528 |
| NYI | 212 | 07 | 017 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48NYINick LeddyAssists: Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:44TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 15:02NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 9:04TORPhil KesselAssists: Leo Komarov, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 11:11TORRoman PolakGWGAssists: Daniel Winnik, Mike Santorelli · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 16:21TORDavid ClarksonAssists: Peter Holland, Stephane Robidas · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 17:53TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:11NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:11TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:11TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:57TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:58TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:12NYICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P2 3:07TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:26NYIJohnny Boychuk: Holding2 min
- P3 7:07TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:13NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P3 11:39NYICalvin de Haan: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 15:48TORCody Franson: Holding2 min
- P3 19:16NYICal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Lupul – Holland – Panik2:17
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Holland – Panik2:10
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Komarov2:10
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Winnik – Holland – Panik2:04
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly3:14
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Robidas – Gardiner4:22
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Polak – Rielly6:14
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bailey – Strome6:29
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares4:34
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Nelson4:24
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Conacher2:12
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Hamonic12:46
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 0–3
- Strait – de Haan10:32
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy10:34
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).