Tue, Oct 21, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 19 | 117 | 02 | 1 | 336 |
| NSH | 110 | 18 | 15 | 03 | 2 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21ARIRob KlinkhammerAssists: David Moss, Kyle Chipchura · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 12:05NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 5:12NSHRyan EllisAssists: Derek Roy, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:48ARIKeith YandlePPAssists: Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 7:42ARIMartin EratPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 8:03NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Derek Roy scored
- 2. ARI Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 3. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 4. ARI Sam Gagner stopped
- 5. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 6. ARI Antoine Vermette scored
- 7. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 8. ARI Martin Erat stopped
Penalties (10)
- P2 3:09ARIBrandon McMillan: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:48NSHViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:19ARIAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
- P2 11:45NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 12:08ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:16ARIRob Klinkhammer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:06ARISam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48NSHRyan Ellis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:08NSHViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min
- P3 19:44NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Korpikoski – Gagner9:44
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan4:11
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moss – Chipchura – Klinkhammer9:19
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker12:57
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone16:28
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy12:36
xG 0.62–0.37 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Michalek – Schlemko13:22
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:07
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Stalberg – Jarnkrok10:54
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Wilson – Smith9:23
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque6:29
xG 0.01–0.51 (3%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm11:44
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Volchenkov – Jones11:08
xG 0.32–0.38 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi17:49
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).